O Que Aconteceu? 2014

Back in 2006 I posted a blog about Brazil’s loss to France in the World Cup.  That game was in Germany, and France won by one goal, 1-0.  A heartbreak, sure, but not the stunner of 1998 or the abysmal loss this was – at home.

            Here’s my “autopsy”, so to speak, applying my own logic to the situation.

The (Not Quite So Beautiful) Game.  Germany went up 1-0…and soon a blitz of goals put the game at 5-0 at the half.  Brazil’s counterattack was non-existent, as was its defense.  In the second half, Germany piled on two more goals to make it 7-0, and finally Oscar scored a goal to prevent a complete shut-out, so the final tally was 7-1.

This was, by far, Brazil’s worst defeat ever.  The commentators noted that the stadium remained full despite the lopsided score, and speculated that the mostly Brazilian crowd was remaining out of “morbid curiosity.”

            So, what happened? (“O que aconteceu?”)  One word: NEYMAR.   Brazilian Coach Luis Felipe (Felipão = Big Phil) Scolari built the team around the Barcelona striker, and when his back was injured by Colombia in the prior game, it was not only game over for Neymar, but also the Brazilian team.  They really did NOT have a plan.  Did they have other talented players?  Yes.  But no one of his caliber.

            Argentina has the same “problem”, which is not an issue so long as Lionel Messi remains healthy and active.  If anything happened to him – Tanya Van Harding, with a collapsible baton, for instance – his team would be history.  Is it so hard to imagine a team anchored around a single player?   Not if you watch the NBA.  Not if you watch how poorly the Patriots and Colts played when Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were injured for entire seasons.  Every now and then an unknown QB steps out from the shadow of the starting but injured QB and rises to the occasion, like Brady himself.  But it’s not likely, and Brazil did not have the depth to survive Neymar’s departure.

            Contrast this with the German team.  Klose is a good veteran, Özil and Müller are also good (I have Müller’s 2010 jersey).  Neuer shines defending the goal, but the German team is far more evenly spread in terms of relative talents.  They don’t have a single irreplaceable player, no star who shines brighter than all the others.  

            Look at 2002, in which Brazil and Germany faced off in the final in Tokyo/Seoul.  The situation was reversed.  Brazil had the more balanced team; although Ronaldo (Brazilian variant) was clearly the star and scored both goals, Rivaldo and Ronaldinho also contributed heavily to the team’s success.  Germany, on the other hand, was anchored by its star, Michael Ballack (now a commentator for ESPN) and he was knocked out, like Thiago Silva, by a yellow card disqualification in the prior game against South Korea.

            Scolari himself countered that Neymar is a striker, not a defender, so his presence on the field would not have helped.  Much as I admire Big Phil – he did bring the trophy back in 2002 - I think he’s wrong here, for two big reasons.

            1.  Neymar’s presence on the field, by itself, inspired the rest of the team.  Messi does the same for Argentina, as Brady and Manning do.  The whole team plays better with him on the field.

            2.  So long as the opposing goalie is conscious, coherent, and competent, you cannot score from your side of the field.   A strong attack keeps the ball on the other team’s side.  Not only does this increase your chances of scoring, it also deprives the other team of the opportunity to try kicking the ball into your net.  The complete absence of any semblance of an offense then puts all the pressure on the defense, which was missing Thiago Silva.  Because – aside from the goalie – the players operate on both sides of the field whether attackers, midfielders or defenders, Neymar’s presence also improved Brazil’s defense as well as its offense.

            Factor that you probably need to take 10 shots at the goal to get one actual goal.   If you can keep pressure on the other team such that you make 20 shots and he can only make 5, chances are the score will be 2-0.  Though Germany’s percentage appeared to be MUCH higher in this game….

            Even if Neymar had played, I’d still have put the odds of a Brazilian victory at 50/50.  Brazil was underwhelming in the group phase and only beat Chile by penalties.  But a loss would have been 1-0 or 0-0 on penalties, not this 7-1 rout we saw.

Allow me to inject three instances of NFL disappointment – as a Minnesota Vikings fan.

1997-1998 Season.  The Vikings made it to the NFC Championship against the Atlanta Falcons.  Despite leading until the end of regulation, they missed a field goal and allowed the Falcons to push them into overtime.  I knew if that happened, the Falcons would win – and they did.

2000-2001 Season.  They get to the NFC Championship again, only to fall 41-0 to the New York Giants.  ??? Which team was this?  How does this happen?  This game, more so than these other two – which were actually close games – is what most closely approximates the sheer disbelief of the Brazil-Germany blowout. 

2008-2009 Season.  We finally get Brett Favre as QB.  He brings us all the way to the NFC Championship game again, this time against the New Orleans Saints.  We could have gone for a field goal.  But Favre had to throw that damn interception, and the Saints did the rest.  I know the Vikings could have beat the Colts, so this was a blown opportunity to get the first Super Bowl trophy.  And the next season was abysmal.

I’ll be rooting for Germany against Argentina, which in itself will be a rematch of the 1986 (Argentina) and 1990 (Germany) World Cups.   As a fan, my allegiances are to Brazil, Germany, and the US, in that order.  Sou Americano de verdade, ich weisse.  Since none of the current roster were playing on the German team in 1990, when they last won the World Cup – US coach Jurgen Klinsmann was on that team – this is their chance to get a victory for themselves.   This is particularly important for Klose, who played on the 2002, 2006, and 2010 teams and will almost certainly not play in 2018.

Hope for 2018?  Neymar is young, he can recover and fight again in Russia.  I’m most optimistic for the US team, though.  Klinsmann had the same problem as Scolari: a key striker – Altidore – suddenly knocked out.  But Dempsey was strong enough to pick up the slack.  Had Altidore not been injured, the US might have tied Germany, beat Belgium, and conceivably gone neck-and-neck with Argentina.  Look at Julian Green, who scored the US’ only goal against Belgium coming off the bench late in the game in his first appearance.  He plays for Bayern Munich, Germany’s top team!  Altidore will be 29, not too old for ’18, though Dempsey will be 35; the big problem is goalie Tim Howard.  For the US to emerge from its group at all, much less missing Altidore, is amazing.  Moreover, more US players are getting experience either overseas on top tier European teams, or in an MLS which is upping its roster with more experienced Europeans.  Beckham was at the Galaxy, Thierry Henry is with the NY Red Bulls, and Kaka will be joining the Orlando expansion franchise.  The irony is that America has more reason to be proud of its own team – which only lost to Germany by one goal – than Brazil has to be proud of this year’s Seleção, even if it was just Neymar’s bad luck to be injured.   Brazil survived its loss to Uruguay in 1950 to win in 1958, and its loss to France in 1998 to come back and win in 2002.  Let’s see if they can do it again in 2018.