Deliberate Unauthorized Launch (DUL)

Recently I finished Eric Schlosser’s account of US strategic nuclear forces, Command and Control.   Schlosser is probably best known for his somewhat scathing expose of America’s fast food industry, Fast Food Nation, which I reviewed in my blog dated 9/21/07, later followed by my own blog on fast food [11/24/07] and finally my critique of Morgan Spurlock’s attack on McDonald’s, Super-Size Me [8/18/11].

Here Schlosser’s analysis focuses on who controls the US’ nukes.  While he does go into some detail about the Manhattan Project and some of the development and testing of the H-Bomb, most of his concern is about nuclear accidents or deliberate unauthorized launch (DUL) of US nuclear weapons.   Fortunately there have been none, but a few US nuclear bombers did crash – including one in North Carolina – and an ICBM blew up in Arkansas in 1980.  He gives considerable attention to these issues.  Fortunately again, none of these accidents resulted in a detonation of a nuclear device, though the experts Schlosser quotes believe this was due as much to sheer dumb luck as any deliberate safety designs. 

This book led me to re-watch a few movies (listed below) that I had seen earlier, but also to read Red Alert and watch “Fail-Safe”.  

Kill the King.  Before I get into those, some discussion of the decentralization of US control is warranted.  Nominally we expect that the ONLY person with the authority to launch our nukes is the President.  In fact, he keeps in his possession “the football”, i.e. the launch codes.   Only he can decide to launch, right?  We didn’t elect the SAC generals or the Navy captains on the nuke subs – we don’t even know who they are.  Fair enough.

            The problem is that the President is, was, and always has been, extremely vulnerable to nuclear attack, a so-called “decapitation” attack.  We imagine the President MUST have some underground bunker protected by thousands of feet of steel-reinforced concrete, protecting him while the rest of us get blown up, right?  Well, not exactly.  First off, such a fortress was never developed in all these years.  Second, a Soviet ICBM attack would arrive in 30 minutes.  Even with immediate notice of the attack, the President would have only 30 minutes to run to the shelter – assuming it existed.  As a practical matter, he would only be protected if the attack happened to occur when he was IN the shelter.  Fat chance of that.  In fact, it was precisely for this reason that such a fortress was never built.

            Well, if the President is the only one who can order the launch, and he can be taken out fairly easily by a surprise attack, where does that leave us?  Plan R.   Logic suggests we need a “Plan R” to allow surviving SAC generals to retaliate against this hypothetical Soviet sneak attack.   The problem is – as noted below – we have no way of reining in rogue SAC generals.

Red Alert (1958), by Peter Bryant.  A rogue Strategic Air Command general, Quinten, launches a pre-emptive US nuclear attack on the Soviet Union.   Only the US President knows that the Soviets have installed a device which will detonate nukes in the atmosphere, destroying all life on the planet, if the USSR is attacked.  The President attempts to recall the US bomber fleet – note: ICBMs were not then in service, but are by their nature 100% unrecallable – but one bomber still gets through.   As a token of good faith to the Soviets, because he knows that last bomber will succeed at destroying a Soviet ICBM base and the town next to it, the US President agrees to allow the Soviets to destroy a US city of similar size.

            If this sounds like “Dr. Strangelove”, it’s because the movie was in fact based on the book – and some dialogue practically lifted verbatim from the book - although with substantial differences.   One big difference is that Bryant goes into considerable detail about the US nuclear weapons and the B52K’s immunity to interception.  The other is that Quinten, unlike Ripper, actually has a good reason for launching the nukes.  Quinten knows that in very short time the Soviets will have an ICBM force the US lacks.  At that time, a Soviet first strike would destroy the US and we would be powerless to respond.  However, the Soviets assume we would never strike first, so they have no defense against a US first strike – therefore our pre-emptive strike has 100% chance of succeeding.   Well, except for the Doomsday device, which General Quinten does not know about.

Fail-Safe (1964).  This movie came out at the same time as “Dr. Strangelove” but gets overshadowed by it.  Unlike that movie, which has a fair amount of dark satire and humor – even Peter Sellers in two roles – this one is 100% serious.   Henry Fonda plays the US President, Larry “J.R. Ewing” Hagman plays his Russian interpreter, and Walter Matthau is a cocky civilian scientist who claims to be an expert on nuclear strategy.  In this film it’s a computer glitch which sends the SAC bombers to destroy the USSR.   We manage to recall – or the Soviets manage to shoot down – all but one US bomber.  But even the President AND the bomber pilot’s wife can’t seem to persuade him to abort the mission.  So the President agrees to send our own nuclear bombers against New York City as a token of good faith, knowing his own wife, the First Lady, is shopping in Manhattan.

Dr. Strangelove (1964).  Ah, the Stanley Kubrick classic we all know and love.  SAC General Ripper initiates Plan R, sending his wing of B52s off to the Soviet Union.  Why?  He believes the Soviets have undermined us by fluoridating our water supply, compromising our bodily fluids.  The Soviets are summoned to the War Room (no fighting, please, gentlemen!) and inform us about the Doomsday device.   Why didn’t they tell us about it earlier?  Well, they were planning to but hadn’t gotten around to it yet.  George C. Scott is the rambunctious and belligerent Air Force general, and of course Sellers is the RAF executive officer to Ripper and the eccentric ex-Nazi Dr. Strangelove. 

            As implausible as this scenario sounds, Schlosser did note that the Air Force’s attempt to screen its personnel for psychological problems was not entirely successful.   Moreover, in the wake of our failure in Vietnam, drug use in the US military became rampant in the late 70s and early 80s; see Joacquim Phoenix’s cynical 2001 film, “Buffalo Soldiers”.  Yes, this included the SAC and the ICBM crews.  Moreover, security for our tactical and intermediate range nukes in Europe was horrendously lax.  Basically it was guys like Winger & Ziskey (Bill Murray and Harold Ramis) protecting not only the Urban Assault Vehicle, but also our Pershing missiles.   But again – by some miracle no nukes were stolen.

A few more, while I’m on topic, though not directly related to rogue nuclear attacks.

Trinity & Beyond.   This is a documentary, narrated in a normal voice by William Shatner (Kirk, TJ Hooker, Denny Crane, Priceline Negotiator) about nuclear weapons, starting with Trinity – our first test in New Mexico in 1945 – and going all the way up to the present day.  What’s intriguing about this is that it’s not just OUR programs the movie shows:  yes, the H-Bomb tests in the Pacific, but also the British tests in Australia, the French tests in Algeria, the Soviet 54 megaton test in the early 1960s, AND a discussion of the high altitude tests which induce EMP (electromagnetic pulse) and a third disc going on about actual civilian uses, i.e. nuclear demolitions.   The structural tests in the 1950s – lots of buildings blowing up and trees blowing over – are put into context here, so now we know where all those movies get their footage of this stuff from.  And there’s some stuff here about underground tests, which are fascinating in their own way:  a large circular depression suddenly erupts in the middle of the desert.   Mainly it’s some eerily mesmerizing eye candy of nuclear tests in the Pacific – mushroom clouds silhouetting palm trees.  Morbidly fascinating!  Enjoy!

The Day After (1981).  “Fail-Safe” and “Dr. Strangelove” both ended with the nukes going off.  Ok, fine.  But this one went further.  NYC, Washington, L.A., all seem like obvious targets for Soviet attack.  But Kansas City?  What’s there to attack?  As it happens, several ICBM silos.  

            Here’s an aside about our “nuclear umbrella”.  NATO supposedly defended Western Europe against conventional attack by Soviet Warsaw Pact forces.  Even with US troops in Germany, NATO was always outmatched on the ground.  Our forces would be merely speed bumps on the Red Army’s trip to Paris.  It was our nukes aimed at Moscow which were supposed to deter the Soviets from rolling down the Champs Elysees.   Soviet tanks rolling down Pennsylvania Ave or Fifth Avenue?  Not likely.  Soviet ICBMS raining down on Washington or Manhattan in response to US nukes launched at Moscow after Soviet tanks rolled into Paris?  Much more plausible.  The Europeans didn’t want to pay for tanks and planes.  They wanted the US to risk its cities to Soviet nuclear attack to deter the Soviets from invading theirs, when our own cities were effectively immune to Soviet conventional forces.  So NY and LA were in the crosshairs of Soviet rocket forces because Nigel, Pierre and Hans were too cheap to buy tanks and planes.  Not really in our best interests, eh?  When you think about it, probably not.

            And case in point:  US and USSR bumping ugly over Berlin results in Soviet mushroom clouds over Kansas City.  Jason Robards’ character’s car shuts down on the highway outside KC, thanks to EMP.  Then several huge mushroom clouds erupt.  That alone was terrifying.  But the movie didn’t stop there: the fallout, the devastation, the breakdown, the hungry farmers wondering how to plant in ruined soil, the hospital overwhelmed with casualties, and then everyone’s hair falling out – if they survived, that is.  This is what made the movie so memorable.  If you die in the nuclear attack, well then, your worries are over.  But even if you survive, what then?  The best case scenario is still a nightmare.   The movie shocked even Ronald Reagan.  Watch it, if you haven’t already.