Elections

Now we have President Donald “Orange” Trump.  I voted for Gary Johnson, and it looks like he didn’t win.  Let’s look at the prior ones…

1976.  The first election I can remember, as I was only 3 years old in 1972 and not even born in 1968.   This was between the GOP candidate, the incumbent President Gerald Ford (VP Bob Dole of Kansas) and Democrat, Jimmy Carter, former Governor of Jawja, with VP candidate Walter Mondale.   With the exception of my friend Mike’s dad, who preferred Ford, most people I heard express preferences for Carter.  Ford had become President when Nixon resigned, and had become VP when Spiro Agnew resigned, so he had no prior track record of winning a Presidential election. Honestly, though, I can’t remember who my parents voted for.   Carter won fairly easily.

1980.  By this time we were living in Paris, France, going to Marymount.   I was in seventh grade.  The election was between Ronald Reagan (George H.W. Bush, VP) for the GOP, against the incumbent Jimmy Carter.  By now Carter was highly unpopular due to the Iranian hostage scandal.  Jon Anderson ran as an independent.  I heard no one voice support for Carter, and one student – Michael B., now a university professor and Bernie Sanders supporter – voice support for Anderson.  

1984.  Now Mondale came into his own and ran as a Presidential candidate for the Democrats, with Geraldine Ferraro – a woman – as his VP candidate.  Reagan was highly popular.  Mondale did himself no favors by admitting he would raise taxes.  By this time I was in high school (sophomore year) at the American School of Paris.  Michael B was going to the Lycee International, so I don’t know who he supported; I’d guess Mondale, but both of us were still below voting age at this time.  Most of my fellow students supported Reagan (even if we couldn’t vote) but a few expressed support for Mondale, which earned them ridicule.  Of course, Reagan won this.

1988.  By now I was in college at the University of Maryland – and finally old enough to vote.   No surprise that Reagan did not seek a third term.  His VP, George H.W. Bush – father of later President George W. Bush – ran on his own, with a head-scratcher as a VP candidate, Dan Quayle of Indiana.  Handsome but dumb was the consensus on him, not entirely accurate or fair.  I voted for Bush.   In fact, this was the ONLY election in which the candidate I voted for actually won (though for some special reasons you’ll see below).   The Democratic candidate was Michael Dukakis, former governor of Massachusetts, a short guy.  His VP candidate was Lloyd Bentsen, who was more popular and respected than Dukakis.  A cartoon at the time showed a GOP elephant holding a sign with BUSH in big letters and QUAYLE in very small type, while the Democratic donkey carried a similar sign with DUKAKIS in very small type and BENTSEN in large letters.  Not a close race.

1992.   Ah, Bill Clinton (with Al Gore).   My vote for Bush Sr. went by the wayside, and Clinton won easily.  This launched Hillary’s political career, such as it was, as well.  I was in law school at the time.

1996.   The GOP picked Bob Dole – It’s my turn now, damn it! – with Jack Kemp (RIP) as his running mate.  My vote for Dole went down the tube.  The election was called for Clinton fairly early in the evening.   By this time I was in private practice as an attorney.

2000.   Here’s when I got fed up and started voting Libertarian:  in this case, Harry Browne, who I met in person at a Libertarian event.  I had just started a job in Woodbridge at a firm, doing only contested Virginia divorces.   Based on the prior elections, we all expected the race to be called before bedtime, but even by midnight, we still didn’t know who won:  George W. Bush (w/Dick Cheney) or Al Gore and Joe Lieberman.   I went to bed assuming they’d have it figured out by the morning – WRONG.  It took a Supreme Court decision in December halting recounts in Florida before Bush came out as the winner.

2004.   I voted for Badnarik (Libertarian) this time around, and he lost.  Yes, really.   John Kerry and cheating-on-his-wife DURING THE ELECTION John Edwards were the close losers this time, with Ohio being the state which decided this one.   So we got four more years of Bush & Cheney.   I didn’t mind that much.  By now I was in solo practice in Northern Virginia.

2008.   Time to vote for Bob Barr!   What?  Cheese made of breast milk?  So that’s why he didn’t beat Obama or John McCain (w/Sarah Palin as VP).  Still at the same job this time around.  And Obama easily took Virginia, my state.   Barr’s %, like the prior LPA candidates, was negligible.

2012.   My mom, fearing another four years of Obama, convinced me to wait three hours in line reading Game of Thrones and vote for Mitt Romney, who lost not merely Virginia but also the heavily BLUE zone (Fairfax County) in which I live and vote.   However, Libertarian candidate and successful two term New Mexico governor Gary Johnson pulled 1% this time around, with better numbers than the Ed Clark/Dave Koch LPA ticket of 1980.

  

2016.  My brother and I voted for Rand Paul in the GOP primary – the first time I can recall actually voting in the primary as opposed to just the election.  By that time he was out, but had withdrawn too late for his name to be removed from the ballot.  Having voted either GOP or LPA in the past elections, and with Hillary Clinton not particularly likeable, I couldn’t vote for her.  Trump, of course, was out of the question.  So Gary Johnson was a no-brainer for me.  Like everyone else, I assumed – incorrectly, it turns out – that Hillary would win.  At the very least, she would easily wrap up Fairfax County and Virginia.  As it was, she narrowly won Virginia, but lost the electoral vote nationwide, and did so well before bedtime.  For his part, Johnson pulled 3%, below the 5% we needed, but still 3x the prior number and a good sign for the future, depending on how poorly Trump does, who the Democrats pick in 2020, and who the LPA chooses.  Austin Peterson will STILL not be qualified absent an unusually productive four years.  Adrian Peterson might be a better pick - well, he'll win Minnesota.

Since the guy just took office, it’s too early to predict just how badly Donald Trump will ruin our country.  Will we be speaking Russian by 2020?   Mushroom clouds over Washington, a la Man in the High Castle?   A huge wall, paid for by Pink Floyd?   Or will he just muddle through, doing vaguely what his GOP competitors – aside from Rand Paul – would have done?  For those of you morbidly hoping he has a convenient accident, let’s look over the track record:

William Henry Harrison (1841).   He caught enteric fever three weeks after the inauguration, and died.  Given the timing of the illness, we no longer blame his long speech and light wardrobe for his death. 

Abraham Lincoln (1865).   Shot at Ford’s Theater, DC, by a disgruntled actor, John Wilkes Booth, who proclaimed “Sic Semper Tyrannis!”

James Garfield (1881).  Shot by Charles Guiteau, a disgruntled office seeker who felt he’d been cheated out of a patronage job – consul in Paris, despite not speaking French.  Nominally the Secretary of State, James G. Blaine, would be responsible for giving Guiteau the positon, but Blaine considered Guiteau completely unqualified for the job.  Guiteau had no actual beef with Garfield, but simply calculated that Chester A. Arthur, the VP, would be more inclined to allow him to get the job once Garfield was out of the picture.  An odd theory, since he shot Garfield in public at the train station and was recognized immediately by Blaine, who was present.  He was tried, convicted, and hanged.   

William McKinley (1901).  Shot by an anarchist, Leon Czolgosz, at the exhibition in Buffalo, New York.  Czolgosz was apprehended, tried, convicted, and executed.  But he gave us Theodore Roosevelt as president.

Warren Harding (1923).  Died of a stroke.   The  VP, former Massachusetts governor Calvin Coolidge, took over.

Franklin D. Roosevelt (1945).  Died of a stroke.   Two in a row.  The VP, former senator from Missouri Harry S. Truman took over.  

John F. Kennedy (1963). Shot by Lee Harvey Oswald – and no one else.  VP Lyndon Johnson (senator from Texas) took over.  

Ronald Reagan (1982).  Shot at by John Hinckley, who was trying to impress Jodie Foster.   He survived to finish out his term in January 1989.  He died in 2004 of pneumonia/Alzheimer’s. 

Of seven Presidents to die in office, three died of natural causes, and four were shot.  Presumably Trump will improve security at the White House.   We’ll see.