Election 2020

 One day early this week, but not about Christmas.  What can I say?  Birth of Jesus in Bethlehem, Christmas carols, presents, Santa Araya, etc.  Too much about Christmas is common knowledge and too obvious to discuss.  I don’t bring anything different or special to the table to make a blog entry worthwhile.

Ah, but this last election.  

First off:  BIDEN WON, TRUMP LOST.  The electorate is 1/3 Republican, 1/3 Democrat, and 1/3 independent.   It’s possibly ¼ Republican, ¼ Democrat, and ½ independent.  Either way, neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have enough of their own voters to elect the President without the assistance of independents, most of whom are in the middle.  If your candidate’s popularity has dropped to the point where your own party members are supporting the other candidate, that’s a bad sign. 

Second.  I voted for Jo Jorgenson, not Trump or Biden.  I live in Virginia, which has become bluer than it was in 2016, when it voted for Hillary Clinton.  The governor, Ralph Northam, is a Democrat.  Both US Senators, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, are Democrats.  The state legislature in Richmond, the General Assembly, is now majority Democrat.  Sure, there are plenty of Republicans and Trump 2020 signs in Virginia, but not as many as Democrats and Biden-Harris signs.

Jorgenson got 1% of the vote, and won no states.  That doesn’t surprise me.  She has no political experience as an elected official – unlike two term New Mexico governor Gary Johnson – and there’s really no reason for anyone to vote for her except because she happened to be the LP candidate.  Ideally the LP should pick candidates like Johnson who would qualify as major party candidates, but obviously I didn’t choose her.  We’ll see what happens in 2024. 

Third.  This business of “interference 2016” vs. “interference 2020”.   The 2016 interference alleged was that the Russians leaked unflattering information about Hillary Clinton which induced some people to vote for Trump instead.  I don’t recall a single allegation that the Russians tampered with voting machines or absentee and/or mail-in ballots, and for that matter I don’t recall anyone actually determining how many erstwhile Hillary voters switched their votes to Trump in swing states, thanks to this leaked information, pushing the election in his favor.   The more plausible explanation is that Hillary Clinton was less popular than she believed herself, and with her heavily favored to win the election anyway, the only people intensely motivated to vote were people who drank the Trump Kool-Aid (actually, it was Flavor-Aid in Jonestown).

Fourth.  I’m hearing lots of people on the Book of Faces and elsewhere expressing skepticism about the legitimacy of the election and insinuating that Trump’s allegations of fraud are legitimate.  Apparently they have more evidence than Trump’s own attorneys.  More evidence than Trump’s own attorney general, Bill Barr, who advised the President to concede the election.  More evidence than Mitch McConnell (R-KY) or Pat Robertson, who likewise accepted, however reluctantly, Biden’s victory.  Not a single judge, least of all the US Supreme Court, which is 5-4 conservative (Trump’s own three appointees, Barrett, Kavanaugh and Gorsuch, plus Alito and Thomas), accepted these arguments.  Likewise with lower courts, many of whose judges are likewise conservative.  These judges have consistently chastised Trump’s lawyers for filing suits without any evidence to support them.  Trump apparently believes that all you have to do is file a suit and you win the case – bullshit and arrogance are acceptable substitutes for evidence.   This vast conspiracy of judges seems to disagree.

Moreover, there’s a runoff election in Georgia, and both Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell won re-election.  If the Democrats learned how to manipulate the elections, common sense dictates they would have made Rand Paul the senior senator from Kentucky and made sure to flip the Senate. 

I’m not surprised Biden won.  I’m surprised the margin wasn’t even higher.  Many Republicans and independents only voted for Trump in 2016 because they couldn’t stand Hillary Clinton.  Joe Biden is considerably less arrogant and unlikeable among non-Democrats.  It reached the point where many high profile Republicans were endorsing Joe Biden.  I didn’t hear any high profile Democrats endorsing Trump.  If there was any chicanery going on, logic suggests it was on the Republicans’ part.  Some recounts were seeing Biden’s lead getting bigger, not smaller.   The absentee ballots were clearly Biden supporters who wanted to make sure that Trump did not win a second term.  Trump’s own voters assumed he would win re-election and simply voted as usual on election day.  Not only that, although absentee voting started weeks before, many states have rules prohibiting these votes from being counted before election day, instead of being counted when they came in and added to the election day votes to reach the final outcome.  So I knew we wouldn’t know the true outcome on election night.  Whether that changes by 2024, we’ll have to see.   In the meantime, enjoy 4 years of Joe Biden.

Assholes 2020

I posted on Facebook about the Trump supporter, and my last blog was about bad cops.   It's time to step back and look at the bigger picture: ASSHOLES.  I'd actually covered this topic back in 2011, but at that time my focus was on Upton Sinclair's The Jungle.  This time around Donald Trump and the coronavirus are a bit more important.

This Trump supporter will be voting for Trump not despite the fact that he's an asshole, but because he's an asshole.   "Get things done?"   No.    

The men & women in the health profession risking their lives ever day.   Assholes?  No.

The scientists, the Einsteins and Teslas, making the world a better place for us.  Assholes?  No.

The Founding Fathers, who established a democracy, a Constitution, a Bill of Rights, including George Washington, who declined lifetime dictatorship and stepped aside after two terms.  Assholes?  No.

The philosophers, the thinkers, the idealists, were they assholes?  No.

How about Hitler, Stalin, Putin, Mao, etc. all those dictators?  Yes, they were all assholes.   Assholes who never took responsibility for anything, who shifted blame to everyone else and took credit for everything.  Sounds like anyone we know?

The assholes don't "get things done".  They screw things up for everyone else.   We're supposed to meekly take their word for it, to not assert ourselves, to let them do as they please.   Because THEY NEED US, but WE DON'T NEED THEM.   And they're terrified we'll realize this.  So they have to bluff and bullshit their way.  It's our job to call their bluff and tell them to fuck off.  

The US is leading the coronavirus epidemic.  We have something like 5% of the world's population but 25% of its cases.   Why?  Because ASSHOLES won't wear masks - as a matter of principle.   Because the masks don't protect us from them, they protect them from us, the ASSHOLES consider it a waste of time.  Helping anyone else is for chumps.   With anyone else in the Oval Office, they might actually have the shame to comply purely out of social pressure.   But this time around, they finally have THEIR GUY running things.   And THEIR GUY won't do jack shit to help his own country.   His position varies from "it's a HOAX to make me look bad" to "not my problem."   ???  So the President himself, our so-called leader, is encouraging his entire country to behave like assholes.   And too many of us are.   And we're paying the price.   Whether the death rate is 1% or 5%, that's 1-5 out of 100 dying because some jackoff won't wear a mask.   

Those of us who aren't assholes, aren't perfect.  We make mistakes, and not all of those mistakes are honest.   So we apologize, sincerely, take responsibility, and make amends.   And try not to do it again.  Hopefully, we'll succeed.  One thing we don't do, is behave this way consistently as a matter of principle.  That's what separates us from the ASSHOLES.   

Cartman.  The South Park character.  Can consistently be counted on to mistreat everyone and act like an asshole.  I love that meme, “who said it, Cartman or Trump?” because Trump basically acts like a grown up version of Cartman. 

UMCP Dorm Experience.  I went to the University Of Maryland, College Park, for undergraduate college, and since my parents were overseas in Paris all four years, I was on campus for that entire time.  For sophomore year and fall semester of junior year, I was in Talbot Hall.  My FS/JY roommate, ES (initials to hide identities) wanted me out so his buddy from the suite next door, DH, could come in and replace me.  At first I believed ES was the only one in the six person (three double) suite who felt that way, until I spoke with CR, who was in the end suite with BD, a friend of my buddy DB.  The middle suite had WI and CA, both from Hagerstown, MD, with whom I got along fine – or so I thought.  CR, with whom I also didn’t seem to have any overt problems, told me that himself, WI and CA all wanted me out:  BD was the exception, remaining neutral.  And CR said, we want DH in “because he’s an asshole and you aren’t.”   ???? Go figure.  Well, I moved out, and for senior year I was in a huge single in a suite with 5 other guys I got along with.  If they had a problem with me it was moot, I was out soon enough anyway.

Han Solo.  In ”The Empire Strikes Back” he realizes that Princess Leia fell in love with him, not despite the fact that he was “a scoundrel”, but BECAUSE he was “a scoundrel”.  However, he wasn’t nearly an asshole.  In the prior movie, even after admonishing Princess Leia that he expected to be paid and wasn’t in it for her rebellion, he still came back and saved Luke in his attack on the Death Star – instead of simply leaving and paying off Jabba The Hutt.  As rogueish as he was, Han was no asshole.

Ayn Rand.   Some accused her of advocating being a selfish asshole as a matter of principle, but she added an important element which assholes lack:  consistency.  First off, I’ve yet to meet anyone, asshole or otherwise, who explicitly declared that they live by her principles.   Second, her main two fictional heroes, Howard Roark (The Fountainhead) and Henry Rearden (Atlas Shrugged) are not assholes.  They forge their own destinies by their own ambition and talent, but not at anyone else’s expense.  They lack the ruthless exploitation of others which epitomizes the Asshole.

Ayn Rand herself was notoriously unlikeable and cheated on her husband, Frank O’Connor, with Nathaniel Branden, then used her own philosophy to justify her behavior.  I recall a scene in “Dirty Dancing” when a character misbehaves and throws a copy of The Fountainhead as if so say, “Ayn Rand told me this conduct is acceptable.”   My own experience is that I’ve yet to meet anyone who specifically claimed to live their life by her ideals; most said something to the effect that they tried reading her books but found them too boring to finish.  I certainly championed her views in college but never believed she advocated doing whatever you damn well please and screw everyone else, though that seems to be the way she actually behaved, and how many people, who weren’t actually familiar with her philosophy, perceived it to be.  Rational self-interest, including consistency (“do unto others as you would have done unto you”) doesn’t rise to the level of justifying being an asshole. 

Jerry.  My former boss is aggressive and forceful as an attorney, which explains his success.  But what I realized when considering him is that he didn’t screw over anyone to get to where he is.  He is about as assertive and dominant as you can be without being an asshole.   As well as many other successful people in our society who don’t behave like Trump does – arguably far more successful than him, when you closely examine his business failures in more detail with a more critical eye – it’s clear that “asshole who gets things done” is far more rare than Trump and his followers would like us to believe.  More like it being a false claim used to justify their behavior to those calculated to take their word for it.  Well, I won’t.  And if the polls are any indication, neither are a whole lot of other people. 

So this November, vote for the non-asshole, be it Joe Biden or Jo Jorgensen.   If your state or federal legislator is an asshole, vote them out of office - all the way down to county reps, mayors, and soil & water conservation whatchamacallits.   Vote a straight NON-asshole ticket.   And get rid of these jerks, the sooner the better.

Make America Great Again?

Yet another salvo on the Trump issue.  That's because I have some more thoughts on this issue.

Putin’s Support For Trump.   Perhaps we’re a bit too caught up on the premise that Putin supports Trump because he believes Trump, having been helped into office by his comrade Vladimir, will reciprocate in some way.  While I wouldn’t entirely put it past Trump to honor some under-the-table agreement hatched at some meeting in Moscow before the election, a much more mundane idea is this.

Putin’s Russia is angling for more power and influence in the world.  It wants to replace the US as the #1 big shot on the world stage.  Its obvious rival therein is none other than the US of A.   He doesn’t need an American run by a Manchurian candidate either brainwashed, corrupt, or blackmailed (though two of these are sadly plausible).  All he needs is a US president who can’t even talk to Fox News people ostensibly favorable to him without compromising half his policy positions.   A weak and incompetent US president is perfect for Putin’s ambitions. 

[Having said that, given the circumstances we certainly should investigate whether Trump is, in fact, a Russian agent.  We’ll see where all this leads…]

Make America Great Again.  This is rather silly.  Aside from Russian spies or Islamic terrorists, is there anyone in the US who doesn’t want America to be great again?  Did all those people vote for Hillary because they thought she would ruin the country?   Even if Bernie Sanders’ idea of a “great” America resembles Denmark or Sweden, at least he and his supporters are sincere in their ideals – if somewhat misguided (!). 

By the way, speaking of Hillary Clinton.  It’s clear to me that she represents everything that non-Democrats hate about Democrats.  Arrogant, full of herself, confident she knows better than anyone else and that anyone who disagrees with her is an idiot.  She had no charisma, no charm, and no redeeming values.  Hillary weaseled her way to the nomination, pure and simple.  [FYI I voted for Gary Johnson in 2016 and have NEVER voted Democrat in any election, going back to my first in 1988].  The parties were supposed to put forward their best candidates, instead we got their worst.  This 2016 election was as if the last Super Bowl had been between the New York Giants (3-13) (even the hapless Lions hit 9-7) and the Cleveland Browns (0-16).  That would have been a game, huh?

Anyhow.

We have no issue rejecting ads promising to increase our penis size by 3” (probably a plastic extension measuring exactly 3”) or Viagra/Cialis pills at a mere fraction of what the pharmacist charges (probably placebos).  An offer to sell us the Brooklyn Bridge should be just as easily dismissed.  “Make America Great Again” is just as empty. 

The question is not whether we want America to be great again.  The question is why on GOD’S GREEN EARTH anyone believes that Donald Trump, of all people, could possibly make this happen.

Let’s examine who is making this promise.  While Trump himself has never filed personal bankruptcy, plenty of his companies have.  He no longer owns the Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City.  His airline, college, and meat business all went under – under strong charges of fraud.  Although Trump claims he never settles cases, he does so all the time.  He’s screwed up lots of real estate deals, including one for the upper west side of Manhattan.  He inherited his money from his father, and has less money today than if he simply invested his inheritance in a mutual fund.  Trump’s wealth came from his father and his own dumb luck at not losing it all, not from any brilliance or business savvy.  If it were Mark Cuban, Warren Buffett, Ross Perot, or other far more capable business magnates, I’d be more inclined to believe “Make America Great Again” to be a plausible promise.  From Trump it’s nothing more than cow manure.   Though at least cow manure is actually good for something.

I’ll repeat my earlier point about Trump’s golfing.   If what he accomplishes in the Oval Office is as likely to make Russia great as the US, I’m all for him spending more time on the golf course than in the White House. 

The sad irony of impeachment is that even if, somehow, that happens, we still wind up with Mike Pence as President.  Would anyone have voted for him as a Presidential candidate?  Who knows – and we may well find out in 2024.  In the meantime we have to simply hang on for the ride.  “May you live in interesting times…”

The Other Side

I feel compelled to address a broader issue in this country:  rampant hostility.   Since the Florida shooting, I’m seeing a plethora (!) of memes on both sides, tinged with contempt for opposing viewpoints.  I’m pro-gun, myself, but I don’t assume my opponents are idiots simply for disagreeing with me.   And calling each other idiots really doesn’t get anything done.

Gun Control.   When someone shoots up a school, we have to wonder how they acquired access to the weapon in the first place.  Naturally, the weapon itself didn’t kill all those people.   Every day, lawful owners of AR15 do not kill other people.  Criminals kill people with illegally obtained weapons – mostly handguns – and as usual criminals by their nature ignore the laws, including gun control laws.  Knife attacks occur all too frequently.  And again, in the aggregate, more people successfully defend themselves from violent crime with legally owned weapons than are killed in school shootings.   The Armed Citizen, a feature in the NRA’s American Rifleman magazine each month, chronicles exactly that – lawful use of weapons by private citizens in legitimate self-defense - complete with cites to the original news source.  But somehow I doubt gun control advocates are reading the American Rifleman each month – if at all.

Sometimes they cite a combat veteran as being against the Second Amendment.  “I’ve seen what my own M4 carbine rounds do against the Taliban and other enemy combatants, and it boggles my mind how anyone can argue that civilians should have access to weapons like these.”  Combat veterans are in a position to see the damage these weapons can do, and are as entitled as any of us to their political opinions.  But this isn’t Starship Troopers:  you don’t need combat experience to have the right to vote.  Timothy McVeigh was a combat veteran:  does that make his attack in Oklahoma City OK?

Anyhow.  I don’t blame people for wanting to solve the problem.  However, I will oppose any effort to disarm lawful gun owners who aren’t killing anyone or causing problems.   Restrictions on guns for children or the insane, strikes me as a reasonable compromise which is reasonably calculated to address the problem without affecting the rights of sane adults.

Fact: there are highly intelligent Trump voters.  There are highly intelligent Hillary voters.  There are highly intelligent Sanders voters (they’re not all clueless theater majors).  Hell, there were highly intelligent Marxists, and highly intelligent Nazis and SS officers.   That also applies to many senior Al Qaeda and ISIS leaders.  Of course, highly intelligent doesn’t necessarily mean “moral human being”, but it does mean “not an idiot”.

I also see people on MY side use ad hominem attacks – insults instead of arguments – and proffer poor and easily refuted arguments to support my side.  I have to shake my head as being ineptly defended is just as bad as being competently attacked. 

Donald Trump.  I’ve noted earlier that he’s no Hitler.  I’ll add that while I’ve seen my share of inarticulate, misspelling ALLCAPs MAGA maggots, there are others who can spell properly and form coherent sentences who did vote for Trump.   Generally these are people who held their nose to vote for Trump because they disliked Hillary Clinton.

Hillary Clinton.  Remember her?  She hijacked the Democratic nomination from Bernie Sanders, arrogantly asserting that it was her turn to be President, after seeing Barack Obama take what she felt was hers back in 2008.   Arguably more hawkish than Trump, and recall it was a Democrat, LBJ, who sent US troops to Vietnam in 1965 and a Republican, Nixon, who took them out.  As popular as her husband may have been, no one really likes Hillary.  Trump got less votes than Mitt Romney, and he still won, which means Trump was elected as much because Hillary was unpopular as because he himself was so compelling as a candidate. 

Gary Johnson.  Of course, I didn’t vote for either of them:  I voted for the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson.  Of course, he wasn’t particularly charismatic and didn’t do himself any favors by not knowing where Aleppo was – he should have known someone would ask him about US’ proper role in the Syrian conflict.  But he got 3% of the vote.  That may not sound like much, but it’s 3x his 2012 vote tally of 1%, which itself roughly matched the prior record for LPA, the 1980 Clark-Koch ticket. 

By now I’m solidly Libertarian.  I have to shake my head, though, that many Libertarians refused to support Johnson.    Up until 2012, he was a Republican, albeit a successful two term state governor of New Mexico.  

 Was he a solid, 100% Libertarian?  Did he rise through the ranks of the party and do his time in the trenches?  No.  But his closest competitor for the LPA nomination, Austin Peterson, was 35  years old – the bare minimum to qualify for president – and had zero political experience.  

Here’s a news flash.  About 1/3 the country’s voters are Democrat, 1/3 Republican, and 1/3 independent.  This means to win, a candidate has to appeal to independent voters.  A candidate who ONLY appeals to his or her own core constituency will be giving a concession speech on Election Night. 

If the Republicans and Democrats can’t elect a President on their own, certainly the Libertarians, who could probably fit in a football stadium, can’t.   Expecting everyone else to vote for your guy because he’s ticked all the boxes yet has zero relevant experience at any level of government is not realistic, though our current President may either be the 800 lb gorilla exception to this or a growing trend.  We'll see.

ANYHOW.

Let’s work together here.   Don’t assume your opponent is an idiot because he or she disagrees with you.  Don’t insult your opponent because he or she disagrees with you.  Make some good faith effort to find a mutually agreeable solution.  If you can’t, agree to disagree and leave it at that.  (Then call your local congressman.  :D)

Elections

Now we have President Donald “Orange” Trump.  I voted for Gary Johnson, and it looks like he didn’t win.  Let’s look at the prior ones…

1976.  The first election I can remember, as I was only 3 years old in 1972 and not even born in 1968.   This was between the GOP candidate, the incumbent President Gerald Ford (VP Bob Dole of Kansas) and Democrat, Jimmy Carter, former Governor of Jawja, with VP candidate Walter Mondale.   With the exception of my friend Mike’s dad, who preferred Ford, most people I heard express preferences for Carter.  Ford had become President when Nixon resigned, and had become VP when Spiro Agnew resigned, so he had no prior track record of winning a Presidential election. Honestly, though, I can’t remember who my parents voted for.   Carter won fairly easily.

1980.  By this time we were living in Paris, France, going to Marymount.   I was in seventh grade.  The election was between Ronald Reagan (George H.W. Bush, VP) for the GOP, against the incumbent Jimmy Carter.  By now Carter was highly unpopular due to the Iranian hostage scandal.  Jon Anderson ran as an independent.  I heard no one voice support for Carter, and one student – Michael B., now a university professor and Bernie Sanders supporter – voice support for Anderson.  

1984.  Now Mondale came into his own and ran as a Presidential candidate for the Democrats, with Geraldine Ferraro – a woman – as his VP candidate.  Reagan was highly popular.  Mondale did himself no favors by admitting he would raise taxes.  By this time I was in high school (sophomore year) at the American School of Paris.  Michael B was going to the Lycee International, so I don’t know who he supported; I’d guess Mondale, but both of us were still below voting age at this time.  Most of my fellow students supported Reagan (even if we couldn’t vote) but a few expressed support for Mondale, which earned them ridicule.  Of course, Reagan won this.

1988.  By now I was in college at the University of Maryland – and finally old enough to vote.   No surprise that Reagan did not seek a third term.  His VP, George H.W. Bush – father of later President George W. Bush – ran on his own, with a head-scratcher as a VP candidate, Dan Quayle of Indiana.  Handsome but dumb was the consensus on him, not entirely accurate or fair.  I voted for Bush.   In fact, this was the ONLY election in which the candidate I voted for actually won (though for some special reasons you’ll see below).   The Democratic candidate was Michael Dukakis, former governor of Massachusetts, a short guy.  His VP candidate was Lloyd Bentsen, who was more popular and respected than Dukakis.  A cartoon at the time showed a GOP elephant holding a sign with BUSH in big letters and QUAYLE in very small type, while the Democratic donkey carried a similar sign with DUKAKIS in very small type and BENTSEN in large letters.  Not a close race.

1992.   Ah, Bill Clinton (with Al Gore).   My vote for Bush Sr. went by the wayside, and Clinton won easily.  This launched Hillary’s political career, such as it was, as well.  I was in law school at the time.

1996.   The GOP picked Bob Dole – It’s my turn now, damn it! – with Jack Kemp (RIP) as his running mate.  My vote for Dole went down the tube.  The election was called for Clinton fairly early in the evening.   By this time I was in private practice as an attorney.

2000.   Here’s when I got fed up and started voting Libertarian:  in this case, Harry Browne, who I met in person at a Libertarian event.  I had just started a job in Woodbridge at a firm, doing only contested Virginia divorces.   Based on the prior elections, we all expected the race to be called before bedtime, but even by midnight, we still didn’t know who won:  George W. Bush (w/Dick Cheney) or Al Gore and Joe Lieberman.   I went to bed assuming they’d have it figured out by the morning – WRONG.  It took a Supreme Court decision in December halting recounts in Florida before Bush came out as the winner.

2004.   I voted for Badnarik (Libertarian) this time around, and he lost.  Yes, really.   John Kerry and cheating-on-his-wife DURING THE ELECTION John Edwards were the close losers this time, with Ohio being the state which decided this one.   So we got four more years of Bush & Cheney.   I didn’t mind that much.  By now I was in solo practice in Northern Virginia.

2008.   Time to vote for Bob Barr!   What?  Cheese made of breast milk?  So that’s why he didn’t beat Obama or John McCain (w/Sarah Palin as VP).  Still at the same job this time around.  And Obama easily took Virginia, my state.   Barr’s %, like the prior LPA candidates, was negligible.

2012.   My mom, fearing another four years of Obama, convinced me to wait three hours in line reading Game of Thrones and vote for Mitt Romney, who lost not merely Virginia but also the heavily BLUE zone (Fairfax County) in which I live and vote.   However, Libertarian candidate and successful two term New Mexico governor Gary Johnson pulled 1% this time around, with better numbers than the Ed Clark/Dave Koch LPA ticket of 1980.

  

2016.  My brother and I voted for Rand Paul in the GOP primary – the first time I can recall actually voting in the primary as opposed to just the election.  By that time he was out, but had withdrawn too late for his name to be removed from the ballot.  Having voted either GOP or LPA in the past elections, and with Hillary Clinton not particularly likeable, I couldn’t vote for her.  Trump, of course, was out of the question.  So Gary Johnson was a no-brainer for me.  Like everyone else, I assumed – incorrectly, it turns out – that Hillary would win.  At the very least, she would easily wrap up Fairfax County and Virginia.  As it was, she narrowly won Virginia, but lost the electoral vote nationwide, and did so well before bedtime.  For his part, Johnson pulled 3%, below the 5% we needed, but still 3x the prior number and a good sign for the future, depending on how poorly Trump does, who the Democrats pick in 2020, and who the LPA chooses.  Austin Peterson will STILL not be qualified absent an unusually productive four years.  Adrian Peterson might be a better pick - well, he'll win Minnesota.

Since the guy just took office, it’s too early to predict just how badly Donald Trump will ruin our country.  Will we be speaking Russian by 2020?   Mushroom clouds over Washington, a la Man in the High Castle?   A huge wall, paid for by Pink Floyd?   Or will he just muddle through, doing vaguely what his GOP competitors – aside from Rand Paul – would have done?  For those of you morbidly hoping he has a convenient accident, let’s look over the track record:

William Henry Harrison (1841).   He caught enteric fever three weeks after the inauguration, and died.  Given the timing of the illness, we no longer blame his long speech and light wardrobe for his death. 

Abraham Lincoln (1865).   Shot at Ford’s Theater, DC, by a disgruntled actor, John Wilkes Booth, who proclaimed “Sic Semper Tyrannis!”

James Garfield (1881).  Shot by Charles Guiteau, a disgruntled office seeker who felt he’d been cheated out of a patronage job – consul in Paris, despite not speaking French.  Nominally the Secretary of State, James G. Blaine, would be responsible for giving Guiteau the positon, but Blaine considered Guiteau completely unqualified for the job.  Guiteau had no actual beef with Garfield, but simply calculated that Chester A. Arthur, the VP, would be more inclined to allow him to get the job once Garfield was out of the picture.  An odd theory, since he shot Garfield in public at the train station and was recognized immediately by Blaine, who was present.  He was tried, convicted, and hanged.   

William McKinley (1901).  Shot by an anarchist, Leon Czolgosz, at the exhibition in Buffalo, New York.  Czolgosz was apprehended, tried, convicted, and executed.  But he gave us Theodore Roosevelt as president.

Warren Harding (1923).  Died of a stroke.   The  VP, former Massachusetts governor Calvin Coolidge, took over.

Franklin D. Roosevelt (1945).  Died of a stroke.   Two in a row.  The VP, former senator from Missouri Harry S. Truman took over.  

John F. Kennedy (1963). Shot by Lee Harvey Oswald – and no one else.  VP Lyndon Johnson (senator from Texas) took over.  

Ronald Reagan (1982).  Shot at by John Hinckley, who was trying to impress Jodie Foster.   He survived to finish out his term in January 1989.  He died in 2004 of pneumonia/Alzheimer’s. 

Of seven Presidents to die in office, three died of natural causes, and four were shot.  Presumably Trump will improve security at the White House.   We’ll see.

Evil Queen, Evil King

Tempers are flaring on Facebook these days about the election.  In particular, the Trumpers and Hillary crowd are at each others’ throats, and the Johnson camp – myself included – have been caught in the crossfire.  Even nominal Libertarians are pulled in to vote for Trump or Hillary instead of Johnson.  At this point I don’t believe my blog will change anyone’s mind, but I do feel some points are worth making.

GOP Victories.   Obama won handily in 2008 and 2012 against McCain and Romney.  Not landslides, but not razor-thin margins.  George W. Bush’s victories against Gore (2000) and Kerry (2004) were razor-thin, even to the point where recounts were necessary.  For his part, Bill Clinton easily beat George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996.  The last overwhelming GOP victory was in 1988:  Bush Sr. vs. Dukakis.  Let that sink in.

Neither major party has enough hardcore voters to carry the election by themselves.  Appealing to independents and moderates is a must.   So picking a candidate that ONLY your side likes is a recipe for failure.  The Democrats did it in 1988, and the GOP has been doing it ever since 1992.

Good vs. Evil.  A few weeks ago I discussed Machiavelli, and “The Enemy Within” episode of Star Trek, the Original Series, in which Kirk and Spock agreed that a starship captain needs some evil in him to be effective.  Ronald Reagan we could call 60/40 (good/evil), while Jimmy Carter was probably 90/10.  What’s the right balance?  Ideally over 50 on the good, but 60-75 is probably the max.  Beyond that, you wind up with a President who is too good for his own good, too naïve, and even with the benefit of experienced advisors, may still be too trusting of foreign leaders.  With dangerous bastards like Vladimir Putin out there, we need someone who can compete on his terms.  My impression is that Hillary will lock horns with him – and NOT necessarily effectively - while Trump would sell out the country if he could make a profit on the deal.  His loyalty to anyone outside his own family is nonexistent.

Remember Spielberg’s movie “Lincoln”?  Abraham Lincoln is probably our most esteemed and virtuous President.  Yet even he showed some very clever guile and duplicity behind the scenes.  My impression is that Spielberg wanted to show us that even with that, Lincoln was still a good President and a good man – but that there was more to him than we give him credit for. 

Among the current candidates, Hillary Clinton is probably no better than 50/50, and most likely 40/60.   She falls below the threshold of good vs. evil.  Disqualified?  Maybe, but Donald Trump is more like 5/95.  Finding any trace of good in this man is almost impossible.  Whatever good he has is reserved for his immediate family, and the country does not qualify.

 

Gary Johnson looks similar to Carter in this regard.  I don’t see a whole lot of cynicism or guile, but there is some there.  And Weld probably has enough.  So in addition to their superior platforms, and both being former state governors – the highest ranking executives in this country short of President – I’d say they meet the requirements.  Barely.

In fact, because both Hillary Clinton AND Donald Trump are evil, neither is an acceptable substitute for the other and neither should be President.  We should not vote for one to avoid the other.  We should not settle for less than a GOOD President, as opposed to a less evil President.   I can’t say I’ll be able to persuade anyone at this …juncture…but the least I can do I present the argument.