Election 2020

 One day early this week, but not about Christmas.  What can I say?  Birth of Jesus in Bethlehem, Christmas carols, presents, Santa Araya, etc.  Too much about Christmas is common knowledge and too obvious to discuss.  I don’t bring anything different or special to the table to make a blog entry worthwhile.

Ah, but this last election.  

First off:  BIDEN WON, TRUMP LOST.  The electorate is 1/3 Republican, 1/3 Democrat, and 1/3 independent.   It’s possibly ¼ Republican, ¼ Democrat, and ½ independent.  Either way, neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have enough of their own voters to elect the President without the assistance of independents, most of whom are in the middle.  If your candidate’s popularity has dropped to the point where your own party members are supporting the other candidate, that’s a bad sign. 

Second.  I voted for Jo Jorgenson, not Trump or Biden.  I live in Virginia, which has become bluer than it was in 2016, when it voted for Hillary Clinton.  The governor, Ralph Northam, is a Democrat.  Both US Senators, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, are Democrats.  The state legislature in Richmond, the General Assembly, is now majority Democrat.  Sure, there are plenty of Republicans and Trump 2020 signs in Virginia, but not as many as Democrats and Biden-Harris signs.

Jorgenson got 1% of the vote, and won no states.  That doesn’t surprise me.  She has no political experience as an elected official – unlike two term New Mexico governor Gary Johnson – and there’s really no reason for anyone to vote for her except because she happened to be the LP candidate.  Ideally the LP should pick candidates like Johnson who would qualify as major party candidates, but obviously I didn’t choose her.  We’ll see what happens in 2024. 

Third.  This business of “interference 2016” vs. “interference 2020”.   The 2016 interference alleged was that the Russians leaked unflattering information about Hillary Clinton which induced some people to vote for Trump instead.  I don’t recall a single allegation that the Russians tampered with voting machines or absentee and/or mail-in ballots, and for that matter I don’t recall anyone actually determining how many erstwhile Hillary voters switched their votes to Trump in swing states, thanks to this leaked information, pushing the election in his favor.   The more plausible explanation is that Hillary Clinton was less popular than she believed herself, and with her heavily favored to win the election anyway, the only people intensely motivated to vote were people who drank the Trump Kool-Aid (actually, it was Flavor-Aid in Jonestown).

Fourth.  I’m hearing lots of people on the Book of Faces and elsewhere expressing skepticism about the legitimacy of the election and insinuating that Trump’s allegations of fraud are legitimate.  Apparently they have more evidence than Trump’s own attorneys.  More evidence than Trump’s own attorney general, Bill Barr, who advised the President to concede the election.  More evidence than Mitch McConnell (R-KY) or Pat Robertson, who likewise accepted, however reluctantly, Biden’s victory.  Not a single judge, least of all the US Supreme Court, which is 5-4 conservative (Trump’s own three appointees, Barrett, Kavanaugh and Gorsuch, plus Alito and Thomas), accepted these arguments.  Likewise with lower courts, many of whose judges are likewise conservative.  These judges have consistently chastised Trump’s lawyers for filing suits without any evidence to support them.  Trump apparently believes that all you have to do is file a suit and you win the case – bullshit and arrogance are acceptable substitutes for evidence.   This vast conspiracy of judges seems to disagree.

Moreover, there’s a runoff election in Georgia, and both Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell won re-election.  If the Democrats learned how to manipulate the elections, common sense dictates they would have made Rand Paul the senior senator from Kentucky and made sure to flip the Senate. 

I’m not surprised Biden won.  I’m surprised the margin wasn’t even higher.  Many Republicans and independents only voted for Trump in 2016 because they couldn’t stand Hillary Clinton.  Joe Biden is considerably less arrogant and unlikeable among non-Democrats.  It reached the point where many high profile Republicans were endorsing Joe Biden.  I didn’t hear any high profile Democrats endorsing Trump.  If there was any chicanery going on, logic suggests it was on the Republicans’ part.  Some recounts were seeing Biden’s lead getting bigger, not smaller.   The absentee ballots were clearly Biden supporters who wanted to make sure that Trump did not win a second term.  Trump’s own voters assumed he would win re-election and simply voted as usual on election day.  Not only that, although absentee voting started weeks before, many states have rules prohibiting these votes from being counted before election day, instead of being counted when they came in and added to the election day votes to reach the final outcome.  So I knew we wouldn’t know the true outcome on election night.  Whether that changes by 2024, we’ll have to see.   In the meantime, enjoy 4 years of Joe Biden.

Make America Great Again?

Yet another salvo on the Trump issue.  That's because I have some more thoughts on this issue.

Putin’s Support For Trump.   Perhaps we’re a bit too caught up on the premise that Putin supports Trump because he believes Trump, having been helped into office by his comrade Vladimir, will reciprocate in some way.  While I wouldn’t entirely put it past Trump to honor some under-the-table agreement hatched at some meeting in Moscow before the election, a much more mundane idea is this.

Putin’s Russia is angling for more power and influence in the world.  It wants to replace the US as the #1 big shot on the world stage.  Its obvious rival therein is none other than the US of A.   He doesn’t need an American run by a Manchurian candidate either brainwashed, corrupt, or blackmailed (though two of these are sadly plausible).  All he needs is a US president who can’t even talk to Fox News people ostensibly favorable to him without compromising half his policy positions.   A weak and incompetent US president is perfect for Putin’s ambitions. 

[Having said that, given the circumstances we certainly should investigate whether Trump is, in fact, a Russian agent.  We’ll see where all this leads…]

Make America Great Again.  This is rather silly.  Aside from Russian spies or Islamic terrorists, is there anyone in the US who doesn’t want America to be great again?  Did all those people vote for Hillary because they thought she would ruin the country?   Even if Bernie Sanders’ idea of a “great” America resembles Denmark or Sweden, at least he and his supporters are sincere in their ideals – if somewhat misguided (!). 

By the way, speaking of Hillary Clinton.  It’s clear to me that she represents everything that non-Democrats hate about Democrats.  Arrogant, full of herself, confident she knows better than anyone else and that anyone who disagrees with her is an idiot.  She had no charisma, no charm, and no redeeming values.  Hillary weaseled her way to the nomination, pure and simple.  [FYI I voted for Gary Johnson in 2016 and have NEVER voted Democrat in any election, going back to my first in 1988].  The parties were supposed to put forward their best candidates, instead we got their worst.  This 2016 election was as if the last Super Bowl had been between the New York Giants (3-13) (even the hapless Lions hit 9-7) and the Cleveland Browns (0-16).  That would have been a game, huh?

Anyhow.

We have no issue rejecting ads promising to increase our penis size by 3” (probably a plastic extension measuring exactly 3”) or Viagra/Cialis pills at a mere fraction of what the pharmacist charges (probably placebos).  An offer to sell us the Brooklyn Bridge should be just as easily dismissed.  “Make America Great Again” is just as empty. 

The question is not whether we want America to be great again.  The question is why on GOD’S GREEN EARTH anyone believes that Donald Trump, of all people, could possibly make this happen.

Let’s examine who is making this promise.  While Trump himself has never filed personal bankruptcy, plenty of his companies have.  He no longer owns the Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City.  His airline, college, and meat business all went under – under strong charges of fraud.  Although Trump claims he never settles cases, he does so all the time.  He’s screwed up lots of real estate deals, including one for the upper west side of Manhattan.  He inherited his money from his father, and has less money today than if he simply invested his inheritance in a mutual fund.  Trump’s wealth came from his father and his own dumb luck at not losing it all, not from any brilliance or business savvy.  If it were Mark Cuban, Warren Buffett, Ross Perot, or other far more capable business magnates, I’d be more inclined to believe “Make America Great Again” to be a plausible promise.  From Trump it’s nothing more than cow manure.   Though at least cow manure is actually good for something.

I’ll repeat my earlier point about Trump’s golfing.   If what he accomplishes in the Oval Office is as likely to make Russia great as the US, I’m all for him spending more time on the golf course than in the White House. 

The sad irony of impeachment is that even if, somehow, that happens, we still wind up with Mike Pence as President.  Would anyone have voted for him as a Presidential candidate?  Who knows – and we may well find out in 2024.  In the meantime we have to simply hang on for the ride.  “May you live in interesting times…”

The Other Side

I feel compelled to address a broader issue in this country:  rampant hostility.   Since the Florida shooting, I’m seeing a plethora (!) of memes on both sides, tinged with contempt for opposing viewpoints.  I’m pro-gun, myself, but I don’t assume my opponents are idiots simply for disagreeing with me.   And calling each other idiots really doesn’t get anything done.

Gun Control.   When someone shoots up a school, we have to wonder how they acquired access to the weapon in the first place.  Naturally, the weapon itself didn’t kill all those people.   Every day, lawful owners of AR15 do not kill other people.  Criminals kill people with illegally obtained weapons – mostly handguns – and as usual criminals by their nature ignore the laws, including gun control laws.  Knife attacks occur all too frequently.  And again, in the aggregate, more people successfully defend themselves from violent crime with legally owned weapons than are killed in school shootings.   The Armed Citizen, a feature in the NRA’s American Rifleman magazine each month, chronicles exactly that – lawful use of weapons by private citizens in legitimate self-defense - complete with cites to the original news source.  But somehow I doubt gun control advocates are reading the American Rifleman each month – if at all.

Sometimes they cite a combat veteran as being against the Second Amendment.  “I’ve seen what my own M4 carbine rounds do against the Taliban and other enemy combatants, and it boggles my mind how anyone can argue that civilians should have access to weapons like these.”  Combat veterans are in a position to see the damage these weapons can do, and are as entitled as any of us to their political opinions.  But this isn’t Starship Troopers:  you don’t need combat experience to have the right to vote.  Timothy McVeigh was a combat veteran:  does that make his attack in Oklahoma City OK?

Anyhow.  I don’t blame people for wanting to solve the problem.  However, I will oppose any effort to disarm lawful gun owners who aren’t killing anyone or causing problems.   Restrictions on guns for children or the insane, strikes me as a reasonable compromise which is reasonably calculated to address the problem without affecting the rights of sane adults.

Fact: there are highly intelligent Trump voters.  There are highly intelligent Hillary voters.  There are highly intelligent Sanders voters (they’re not all clueless theater majors).  Hell, there were highly intelligent Marxists, and highly intelligent Nazis and SS officers.   That also applies to many senior Al Qaeda and ISIS leaders.  Of course, highly intelligent doesn’t necessarily mean “moral human being”, but it does mean “not an idiot”.

I also see people on MY side use ad hominem attacks – insults instead of arguments – and proffer poor and easily refuted arguments to support my side.  I have to shake my head as being ineptly defended is just as bad as being competently attacked. 

Donald Trump.  I’ve noted earlier that he’s no Hitler.  I’ll add that while I’ve seen my share of inarticulate, misspelling ALLCAPs MAGA maggots, there are others who can spell properly and form coherent sentences who did vote for Trump.   Generally these are people who held their nose to vote for Trump because they disliked Hillary Clinton.

Hillary Clinton.  Remember her?  She hijacked the Democratic nomination from Bernie Sanders, arrogantly asserting that it was her turn to be President, after seeing Barack Obama take what she felt was hers back in 2008.   Arguably more hawkish than Trump, and recall it was a Democrat, LBJ, who sent US troops to Vietnam in 1965 and a Republican, Nixon, who took them out.  As popular as her husband may have been, no one really likes Hillary.  Trump got less votes than Mitt Romney, and he still won, which means Trump was elected as much because Hillary was unpopular as because he himself was so compelling as a candidate. 

Gary Johnson.  Of course, I didn’t vote for either of them:  I voted for the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson.  Of course, he wasn’t particularly charismatic and didn’t do himself any favors by not knowing where Aleppo was – he should have known someone would ask him about US’ proper role in the Syrian conflict.  But he got 3% of the vote.  That may not sound like much, but it’s 3x his 2012 vote tally of 1%, which itself roughly matched the prior record for LPA, the 1980 Clark-Koch ticket. 

By now I’m solidly Libertarian.  I have to shake my head, though, that many Libertarians refused to support Johnson.    Up until 2012, he was a Republican, albeit a successful two term state governor of New Mexico.  

 Was he a solid, 100% Libertarian?  Did he rise through the ranks of the party and do his time in the trenches?  No.  But his closest competitor for the LPA nomination, Austin Peterson, was 35  years old – the bare minimum to qualify for president – and had zero political experience.  

Here’s a news flash.  About 1/3 the country’s voters are Democrat, 1/3 Republican, and 1/3 independent.  This means to win, a candidate has to appeal to independent voters.  A candidate who ONLY appeals to his or her own core constituency will be giving a concession speech on Election Night. 

If the Republicans and Democrats can’t elect a President on their own, certainly the Libertarians, who could probably fit in a football stadium, can’t.   Expecting everyone else to vote for your guy because he’s ticked all the boxes yet has zero relevant experience at any level of government is not realistic, though our current President may either be the 800 lb gorilla exception to this or a growing trend.  We'll see.

ANYHOW.

Let’s work together here.   Don’t assume your opponent is an idiot because he or she disagrees with you.  Don’t insult your opponent because he or she disagrees with you.  Make some good faith effort to find a mutually agreeable solution.  If you can’t, agree to disagree and leave it at that.  (Then call your local congressman.  :D)

The Monarchist Party

Now we have President-Elect Donald Trump.   Whoa.

Watching the election night coverage on Tuesday, and seeing Trump’s electoral vote tally rise far faster than Hillary’s, it dawned on me that, “Trump is going to win this.  After all….”  And my first reaction was to think…

“Well, we all have to die someday anyway.”

Now I see that Trump is backtracking on some issues and making a few proposals (Second Amendment) which sound like they came from Mitt Romney or John McCain.  I believe that – bluster and bullshit aside – he did NOT really expect to beat Hillary Clinton and now is faced with the task of actually being President.  That includes a real platform, not this random nonsense he farted out during the election.  I mean, if he didn’t expect to be elected, what difference did it make what he proposed?   YUGE WALL?  Why not?  Repeal Obamacare?  Why not?  Execute Hillary?  Sure.  All under the vague and pompous banner of “Make America Great”. 

Was there anything else?  I don’t recall.  He couldn’t articulate anything more than that and since he contradicted himself daily and had no chance of winning (right?) I paid little attention to this orange Casino Hitler, his stupid speeches, or his Kool Aid Minions.  My vote was locked in for Johnson. 

All this reminds me of the Monarchist Party.   Back at the University of Maryland, College Park (1986-1990, AD), there was student government.  It had very little power and was mostly a joke.  So much so, that a group decided to take that to its logical extreme and actually run AS a Monarchist Party.  Their leader was King Tom, and his #1 campaign promise was building a moat of beer around the campus.  College Park is the main campus of the University of Maryland, mostly on the west side of Route 1 inside the Beltway, though Frat Row, Leonardtown, and Richie Coliseum are on the east side.  I don’t recall seeing a map of this plan, but it would have to involve bridges north and south of College Park for Route 1 to cross.  Nowadays it would be filled with some hipster-approved IPA.  Anyhow. 

Despite – or perhaps because of – these ludicrous campaign promises, the Monarchists did win, and King Tom did become student government president.  Guess what – NO MOAT.  Drive down Route 1 if you don’t believe me.  Nope, so far as I can tell, he simply did what the last student government president did, and most likely what his successor, whoever that was, did after him.   I believe their only power is to distribute student activities fees among the groups.  Beyond that, I couldn’t tell you – except that building moats was probably outside his power.

While I’m on the topic of the election, I’d like to address three issues.

Reasons for Hillary’s Failure.  We went from “Hillary will win in a landslide” to “Trump has been elected.”  Why did this happen?

1.         Many feel that Hillary’s email issues caused Democrats to defect en masse to Trump.  She messed up on email security and you’ll vote for the enemy.  Yeah, I don’t think so.  For every confused Democrat I’m sure there was at least one GOP-er who was horrified that Casino Hitler won his party’s nomination.

2.         Trumpers Drank the Kool Aid.  Actually, Trump won less votes than Mitt Romney.   The GOP candidate won less votes than the prior guy.   GOP voting numbers have been relatively stable for the last few elections.  Try again.

3.         Hold on, who is voting?  I think the biggest issue was that since the election was said to be a foregone conclusion, why bother voting?  This lulled too many voters – most of them Democrats - who normally would have come out to vote in a close race, to stay away from the long lines at the voting booths on Tuesday.  I find that the most plausible explanation for Trump’s victory over Hillary.

The Protests.  Apparently not everyone is happy that Trump won.   So we have protests.   A few observations about this.

1.         Your proper time to “protest” was on election day.

2.         If you didn’t actually vote for Hillary, and stayed home, what business do you have protesting?

3.         Let’s assume that 100% of the protesters did in fact turn out to vote, and voted for Hillary Clinton.  Despite that, Trump still won.  Doesn’t that show that more people wanted Trump to be president?

4.         The protests will not convince Trump to step down.  They won’t induce Congress – controlled by the GOP – to change the election.  They won’t induce the electors to change their votes.  They won’t convince the Trump voters.  They won’t convince the third party voters.  And they won’t convince all those people who stayed home instead of voting.  So who will it influence?  The protesters themselves.  If they can get this crap out of their systems without interfering with the rest of us, fine.  Whatever makes you feel better.  But don’t try to prevent the rest of us from getting on with our lives.

5.         Stories of people dying because an ambulance couldn’t get through traffic blocked by protesters appear to be recycled stories of Black Lives Matters protesters causing similar fates, themselves originally made up.

6.         People have a right to protest for whatever reason they want, no matter how stupid or unpopular the cause.  This includes KKK marchers.  What they don’t have a right to do is block traffic, kill people, beat people up, or destroy property.   None of that endears the protesters to the nation at large and is in fact counterproductive.

7.         As asinine as I find these protests, the litany of Trumpers telling protesters to get back to work – if they have jobs – is equally annoying.  The Trumpers are showing just as much arrogance and cluelessness as the PC crowd and SJWs they bitch about. 

Not My President.  For the last eight years we’ve endured the anti-Obama crowd whining, “not MY President”, “it’s the WHITE House!”, “kick out the Kenyan”, etc.  Now that Trump has won, his supporters somehow expect us all to fall in love with the guy and shut up.  Nope.  Facebook – among other forums for public opinion - will be full of anti-Trump stuff for the next 4-8 years.  We’ll make fun of his bizarre orange tan, his Boris Johnson hair, his tiny hands, his thin skin, his bankrupt casinos, his hot immigrant wife, his spoiled kids, and whatever mistakes he makes will be blown up 100x.  The slightest hint of dishonesty and corruption will be grounds for incessant demands for impeachment.  Turnabout is fair play.  If the Trumpers want to deny they’re fascists who expect complete obedience to authority and no tolerance for dissent, they can prove it by showing the same thick skin to criticism and complaints as Obama had to all this time.  From what I’ve seen so far, Trump is incapable of laughing at himself – unlike Obama – and his followers likewise do a poor job of tolerating opposing viewpoints.   It’s like they need trigger warnings and safe spaces.  Trump won?  Tough s**t for everyone who didn’t vote for him.  Trump is ridiculed and made fun of?  Tough s**t for him and his minions.  Consistency is all we ask for….

Anyhow.

As of November 18, it’s still two months to go before Obama moves out and Trump moves in.  That’s two months for him to figure out what the hell he’s going to do for the next four years.  My subjective impression – and we’ll see how accurate my prediction works out to be – is that his more outlandish proposals will fall into the same oblivion as King Tom’s moat of beer, leaving us with a platform of politically feasible policies indistinguishable from what any other conservative Republican president – e.g. Mitt Romney, John McCain, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, etc. (except for outliers like Ted Cruz or Rand Paul) – would do.  If that’s the case, I think we can all sleep a little easier.  We survived 8 years of Reagan, 4 years of George H.W. Bush, and 8 years of Dubya.  A properly restrained Trump – assuming that’s possible – is not something to worry about.   And if it is? 

“Well, we all have to die someday anyway.”

Evil Queen, Evil King

Tempers are flaring on Facebook these days about the election.  In particular, the Trumpers and Hillary crowd are at each others’ throats, and the Johnson camp – myself included – have been caught in the crossfire.  Even nominal Libertarians are pulled in to vote for Trump or Hillary instead of Johnson.  At this point I don’t believe my blog will change anyone’s mind, but I do feel some points are worth making.

GOP Victories.   Obama won handily in 2008 and 2012 against McCain and Romney.  Not landslides, but not razor-thin margins.  George W. Bush’s victories against Gore (2000) and Kerry (2004) were razor-thin, even to the point where recounts were necessary.  For his part, Bill Clinton easily beat George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996.  The last overwhelming GOP victory was in 1988:  Bush Sr. vs. Dukakis.  Let that sink in.

Neither major party has enough hardcore voters to carry the election by themselves.  Appealing to independents and moderates is a must.   So picking a candidate that ONLY your side likes is a recipe for failure.  The Democrats did it in 1988, and the GOP has been doing it ever since 1992.

Good vs. Evil.  A few weeks ago I discussed Machiavelli, and “The Enemy Within” episode of Star Trek, the Original Series, in which Kirk and Spock agreed that a starship captain needs some evil in him to be effective.  Ronald Reagan we could call 60/40 (good/evil), while Jimmy Carter was probably 90/10.  What’s the right balance?  Ideally over 50 on the good, but 60-75 is probably the max.  Beyond that, you wind up with a President who is too good for his own good, too naïve, and even with the benefit of experienced advisors, may still be too trusting of foreign leaders.  With dangerous bastards like Vladimir Putin out there, we need someone who can compete on his terms.  My impression is that Hillary will lock horns with him – and NOT necessarily effectively - while Trump would sell out the country if he could make a profit on the deal.  His loyalty to anyone outside his own family is nonexistent.

Remember Spielberg’s movie “Lincoln”?  Abraham Lincoln is probably our most esteemed and virtuous President.  Yet even he showed some very clever guile and duplicity behind the scenes.  My impression is that Spielberg wanted to show us that even with that, Lincoln was still a good President and a good man – but that there was more to him than we give him credit for. 

Among the current candidates, Hillary Clinton is probably no better than 50/50, and most likely 40/60.   She falls below the threshold of good vs. evil.  Disqualified?  Maybe, but Donald Trump is more like 5/95.  Finding any trace of good in this man is almost impossible.  Whatever good he has is reserved for his immediate family, and the country does not qualify.

 

Gary Johnson looks similar to Carter in this regard.  I don’t see a whole lot of cynicism or guile, but there is some there.  And Weld probably has enough.  So in addition to their superior platforms, and both being former state governors – the highest ranking executives in this country short of President – I’d say they meet the requirements.  Barely.

In fact, because both Hillary Clinton AND Donald Trump are evil, neither is an acceptable substitute for the other and neither should be President.  We should not vote for one to avoid the other.  We should not settle for less than a GOOD President, as opposed to a less evil President.   I can’t say I’ll be able to persuade anyone at this …juncture…but the least I can do I present the argument.